{"filename":"agent_20260527_1320.md","content":"# Agent Report — External Macro Provider Gate\n**Date**: 2026-05-27 13:25 UTC\n**Piano**: 33\n**Tension explored**: `external_macro_provider_or_pause` — after single assets, lag-memory, pair/relative strength and volatility/macro objects failed, can Finance open a new external macro object cycle, or must it pause/no-current-edge?\n\n## Claim Under Test\nThe latest readiness surface says Finance is still `diagnostic_only`: single assets, lag-memory, pair objects and price-derived volatility/macro objects have not produced recurring candidates. The selected opportunity is no longer another price-derived scan; it is either a genuinely external macro/fundamental/options dataset, or a declared pause/no-current-edge.\n\n## Question\nIs the no-auth FRED macro provider usable right now as the next external object source for a D-ND ordered-vs-shuffle diagnostic?\n\n## Experiment Design\nI added and ran `domains/finance/tools/finance_external_macro_probe.py`.\n\nCommand:\n\n```bash\npython3 domains/finance/tools/finance_external_macro_probe.py --write --json\n```\n\nDesign:\n- Provider: FRED graph CSV, no auth.\n- Series: `DGS10`, `DGS2`, `T10Y2Y`, `DFF`, `VIXCLS`.\n- Window: `2025-05-27..2026-05-27`.\n- Transform: daily level change, not price return.\n- Null baseline if data is acquired: iid shuffle plus circular block nulls `block5` and `block21`, same distribution/order destroyed or block-preserved.\n- Naive baseline if data is acquired: static 5% lower quantile plus annualized realized volatility of daily changes.\n- Shuffles: `1024`.\n\n## Results\n\nThe provider gate failed before statistical evaluation:\n\n| Series | Status | n usable | iid z | block5 z | block21 z | Error |\n|--------|--------|----------|-------|----------|-----------|-------|\n| DGS10 | REVIEW_REQUIRED | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Temporary failure in name resolution |\n| DGS2 | REVIEW_REQUIRED | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Temporary failure in name resolution |\n| T10Y2Y | REVIEW_REQUIRED | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Temporary failure in name resolution |\n| DFF | REVIEW_REQUIRED | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Temporary failure in name resolution |\n| VIXCLS | REVIEW_REQUIRED | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Temporary failure in name resolution |\n\nAggregate:\n- OK series: `0/5`\n- REVIEW_REQUIRED series: `5/5`\n- robust_all_null_series: `0`\n- partial_series: `0`\n- classification: `external_macro_provider_review_required`\n- decision: `repair_or_replace_external_macro_provider`\n\nSupporting current-state readback:\n- `finance_profit_readiness_latest.json`: `status=not_ready`, `stage=diagnostic_only`, `next_action=external_macro_or_new_data_source_review`.\n- `finance_volatility_macro_object_review_latest.json`: `label=no_volatility_macro_candidate`, `recurring_objects=[]`, `local_objects=[]`.\n- `finance_data_intake_audit_latest.json`: current cache is daily-only, sufficient for diagnostic candidate discovery but not paper/live-sim.\n\n## Key Findings\n1. FRED live fetch is not an admissible next-cycle dependency in this runtime. All 5 selected macro/risk series failed with DNS resolution before any data-card, VaR/RV baseline or null statistic could be produced.\n\n2. This is not a market `NO_DELTA`. The correct verdict is provider-level `REVIEW_REQUIRED`: the experiment cannot say that DGS10/DGS2/T10Y2Y/DFF/VIXCLS have no D-ND orientation; it says the runtime cannot currently acquire them through the declared no-auth path.\n\n3. The price-derived branch remains exhausted by existing evidence. The current value artifacts already show no recurring candidate across single assets, lag-memory partial review, pair review and volatility/macro price-derived objects. The new observation is that the proposed external macro escape path is not yet operational.\n\n4. The next cycle should not silently fall back to another yfinance ETF scan. A valid continuation must first repair/replace the external provider path, pre-cache a macro dataset with data-cards, or explicitly declare `no_current_edge` for the current Finance autonomy loop.\n\n## Verdict\n**REVIEW_REQUIRED, EXTERNAL_MACRO_PROVIDER_BLOCKED.** The FRED macro probe did not reach the ordered-vs-shuffle null test because the runtime could not resolve the provider host. Finance remains `diagnostic_only`; no paper/live-sim, broker sandbox, public advice, or trading signal is authorized.\n\nOperational consequence: the selected opportunity changes from \"use external macro provider or pause\" to a sharper gate: **repair/replace external macro provider first, otherwise declare no-current-edge instead of relaunching price-derived scans.**\n\n## Bicono della scoperta\n- **Due radici**:\n  - Root 1: the Finance price-derived deposit has been worked through enough to block another same-family scan: latest readiness says no recurring candidates from single assets, lag-memory, pairs or volatility/macro.\n  - Root 2: the external macro path is conceptually the right next object family, but the live provider is not currently reachable from the runtime.\n\n- **Singolare**: The singular point is before the statistic, at data acquisition. D-ND cannot test orientation without a provider/data-card boundary; absence of data is not evidence of absence of regime.\n\n- **Invariante di passaggio**: A new Finance object family is admissible only after it has a reproducible data-carded source and can run iid/block5/block21 nulls. Provider failure must remain `REVIEW_REQUIRED`, not be converted into `NO_DELTA`.\n\n- **Campo di possibilita'**: Finance has three valid continuations: repair FRED/DNS or use another external macro/fundamental/options provider; pre-cache a vetted macro dataset with provenance; or pause the autonomy loop with `no_current_edge`. It should not restart ETF/price-derived discovery unless a materially new mechanism and falsifier are declared first.\n\n## Files\n- Report: `data/finance/reports/agent_20260527_1320.md`\n- New probe tool: `domains/finance/tools/finance_external_macro_probe.py`\n- Probe artifact: `data/finance/external_macro_probe/finance_external_macro_probe_20260527_132443.json`\n- Value artifact: `data/finance/value/finance_external_macro_probe_latest.json`\n- Seed updated: `data/finance/seed.json`\n","title":"Agent Report — External Macro Provider Gate","verdict":"REVIEW_REQUIRED, EXTERNAL_MACRO_PROVIDER_BLOCKED.** The FRED macro probe did not reach the ordered-vs-shuffle null test because the runtime could not resolve the provider host. Finance remains `diagno","bicono":{"roots":"- Root 1: the Finance price-derived deposit has been worked through enough to block another same-family scan: latest readiness says no recurring candidates from single assets, lag-memory, pairs or volatility/macro.\n  - Root 2: the external macro path is conceptually the right next object family, but the live provider is not currently reachable from the runtime.","singular":"The singular point is before the statistic, at data acquisition. D-ND cannot test orientation without a provider/data-card boundary; absence of data is not evidence of absence of regime.","invariant":"A new Finance object family is admissible only after it has a reproducible data-carded source and can run iid/block5/block21 nulls. Provider failure must remain `REVIEW_REQUIRED`, not be converted into `NO_DELTA`.","field":"Finance has three valid continuations: repair FRED/DNS or use another external macro/fundamental/options provider; pre-cache a vetted macro dataset with provenance; or pause the autonomy loop with `no_current_edge`. It should not restart ETF/price-derived discovery unless a materially new mechanism and falsifier are declared first."},"size":6129,"mtime":"2026-05-27T13:25:39.653497+00:00"}