{"filename":"agent_20260606_0217.md","content":"# Bitcoin Regime Lab Cycle 20260606_0217\n\n## Ruolo/funzione\n\nTM7-vps in funzione Bitcoin Regime Lab, sostituzione operativa TM3.\n\nIl ciclo continua dalla direzione applicata nel log:\n`Keep strict-close paper ledger quarantined as extra research-only unless it becomes expected prod`.\n\nNessun contenuto qui e' direzione di mercato, target, entrata, uscita,\nsupporto/resistenza operativo, decision-support pubblico, consiglio o segnale.\n\n## Fonti lette\n\n- `/opt/tm7/TM7_CODEX_OPERATING_KERNEL.md`;\n- `/opt/tm7/TM7_THIA_TM3_OPERATING_PROFILE_2026-05-08.md`;\n- `/opt/CLAUDE.md`;\n- `/opt/THIA/CLAUDE.md`;\n- `/opt/THIA/docs/core/COWORK_KERNEL.md`;\n- `/opt/THIA/docs/memory/PROJECT_MEMORY.md`;\n- `/opt/THIA/docs/memory/COWORK_CHANNEL.md`;\n- `domains/bitcoin-regime-lab/context.md`;\n- `domains/bitcoin-regime-lab/transduction.md`;\n- `domains/bitcoin-regime-lab/mml.json`;\n- `docs/cognitive_archives/README.md`;\n- `docs/cognitive_archives/archive_capsule.v1.json`;\n- `data/bitcoin-regime-lab/seed.json`;\n- `data/bitcoin-regime-lab/reports/agent_20260604_0217.md`;\n- `data/bitcoin-regime-lab/reports/agent_20260605_0217.md`;\n- artifact BTC latest/stamped locali prodotti dal refresh/ciclo `20260606_021701`.\n\nSkill retrieval: il tool `skill_retrieval` non e' esposto in questa runtime\nCodex. Ho applicato il fallback del contesto leggendo le capsule portabili in\n`docs/cognitive_archives/`. Read depth: `CAPSULE`; autorita' numerica:\nartifact BTC locali e guard deterministici eseguiti.\n\n## Tensione scelta\n\n`BITCOIN_REGIME_LAB_CYCLE_WITNESS_PENDING_NOT_ARTIFACT_FAILURE`.\n\nPotere discriminante: il ciclo 20260605 ha separato artifact admission da\ncycle-witness completion. Il 20260606 puo' cambiare lo stato in due modi:\nmaterializzare il witness post-cycle, oppure mostrare che il valore e' cresciuto\nsolo nel layer artifact/produttori mentre trace/assertions/falsifier/closure\nrestano pendenti. Dentro questa verifica, Plan 54 resta il confine: il ledger\nstrict-close non va promosso automaticamente, ma oggi il parent contract va\ncontrollato perche' potrebbe essere diventato paper-admissible.\n\n## Domanda\n\nNel ciclo `20260606_0217`, gli artifact current-cycle sono diventati witness\npost-cycle completi, oppure sono artifact ammessi con lineage/log presenti ma\ntrace/assertions/falsifier/closure ancora pending, mentre il ledger strict-close\nresta da cablare solo tramite decisione esplicita?\n\n## Esperimento\n\nNon ho fatto fetch di rete nell'agente, non ho lanciato un ciclo cognitivo e\nnon ho scritto artifact di mercato. Ho letto gli artifact gia' prodotti dal\npre-cycle/value refresh e ho eseguito guard deterministici read-only o no-write:\n\n```bash\npython3 domains/bitcoin-regime-lab/tools/btc_operational_health.py --json\npython3 domains/bitcoin-regime-lab/tools/btc_producer_trace_sink.py --json\npython3 domains/bitcoin-regime-lab/tools/btc_runtime_lineage_audit.py --cycle-ts 20260606_0217 --json\npython3 domains/bitcoin-regime-lab/tools/btc_night_run_smoke.py --json --date 20260606 --min-cycles-for-date 1 --after-cycle 20260605_0217\njq '{schema,generated_at,decision,verdict,data_card,summary,boundary,runtime_lineage}' data/bitcoin-regime-lab/value/btc_closed_daily_strict_close_contract_latest.json\njq '{schema,generated_at,decision,verdict,summary,metrics,paper_contract,boundary,runtime_lineage}' data/bitcoin-regime-lab/value/btc_strict_close_paper_ledger_latest.json\npython3 domains/bitcoin-regime-lab/tools/btc_strict_close_paper_ledger.py --json\njq '{generated_at,decision,summary,boundary,runtime_lineage}' data/bitcoin-regime-lab/value/btc_daily_closed_evidence_gate_latest.json\ntail -100 data/bitcoin-regime-lab/cycle_20260606_021701.log\n```\n\n## Numeri\n\n### Operational health\n\n| metrica | valore |\n|---|---:|\n| generated_at | `2026-06-06T02:18:16.672590+00:00` |\n| status | `pass` |\n| failures | 0 |\n| warnings | 1 |\n| latest_artifacts_total | 25 |\n| expected_latest_total | 24 |\n| latest_cycle_ref | `20260606_0217` |\n| refresh_ts_values | `20260606_021701` |\n| last_cycle_refs | `20260605_0217` |\n| current_cycle_refs | `20260606_0217` |\n| latest_authority_classes.current_cycle_binding | 20 |\n| latest_authority_classes.refresh_context | 4 |\n| producer_trace_closure_ok | true |\n| warning | `btc_strict_close_paper_ledger_latest.json` unexpected |\n\nHealth passa. Il warning ledger resta extra latest, non producer atteso.\n\n### Producer trace sink\n\n| metrica | valore |\n|---|---:|\n| expected_producers | 23 |\n| available_producers | 23 |\n| missing_producers | 0 |\n| missing_lineage | 0 |\n| missing_stamped_outputs | 0 |\n| sessions | `btc_cycle_pre_refresh`, `btc_value_refresh` |\n| cycle_refs | `20260606_0217` |\n| refresh_refs | `20260606_021701` |\n| last_cycle_refs | `20260605_0217` |\n| trading_signal | false |\n\nIl sink vede tutti i 23 produttori attesi e non include\n`btc_strict_close_paper_ledger_latest.json` nel set expected.\n\n### Runtime lineage audit\n\n`btc_runtime_lineage_audit.py --cycle-ts 20260606_0217 --json`:\n\n| metrica | valore |\n|---|---:|\n| status | `pending` |\n| phase | `in_cycle_or_pre_report` |\n| value_artifacts_total | 20 |\n| expected_outputs_total | 24 |\n| runtime_lineage_ok | 20 |\n| cycle_binding_ok | 20 |\n| raw_log_exists | 20 |\n| raw_trace_exists | 0 |\n| report_exists | 0 |\n| input_artifacts_nonempty | 15 |\n| duplicate_cycle_bindings_ignored | 0 |\n\nMissing expected outputs nel binding current-cycle:\n\n- `btc_daily_closed_evidence_gate_latest.json`;\n- `btc_daily_inefficiency_latest.json`;\n- `btc_fill_rule_sensitivity_latest.json`;\n- `btc_timeframe_matrix_latest.json`.\n\nQuesti quattro artifact sono refresh-context (`cycle_ts=null`,\n`refresh_ts=20260606_021701`) e puntano al last cycle `20260605_0217`, non al\ncurrent-cycle witness. I 20 artifact current-cycle hanno log e stamped output,\nma non hanno ancora `cycle_trace_20260606_0217.json` ne' report al momento\ndell'audit.\n\nVerifica dopo la scrittura del report:\n\n| metrica | valore |\n|---|---:|\n| generated_at | `2026-06-06T02:20:43.831105+00:00` |\n| status | `pending` |\n| runtime_lineage_ok | 20 |\n| cycle_binding_ok | 20 |\n| raw_log_exists | 20 |\n| report_exists | 20 |\n| raw_trace_exists | 0 |\n\nLa scrittura del report chiude il witness `report` per i 20 artifact current\ncycle, ma non materializza ancora raw trace o post-cycle closure.\n\n### Night-run smoke\n\n| check | esito |\n|---|---|\n| operational_health_pass | pass, `status=pass; failures=0; warnings=1` |\n| latest_artifact_count | pass, `25/24; warnings=1` |\n| latest_cycle_ref_present | pass, `20260606_0217` |\n| latest_cycle_after_baseline | pass, latest `20260606_0217` > baseline `20260605_0217` |\n| strict_close_contract_guard | pass, `decision=test; paper=True; policy_mutation=False; trading_signal=False` |\n| primary_cron_present | pass |\n| extra_night_cron_present | pass |\n| cycle_trace_clean | fail, trace non materializzato |\n| assertions_pass | fail, non disponibile |\n| post_cycle_closure_pass | fail, closure assente |\n| falsifier_clean | fail, non disponibile |\n| date_cycle_count | fail, `cycles=0; required=1` |\n\nIl fail globale dello smoke non viene da health, producer coverage o strict\nclose boundary. Viene dalla mancanza del witness post-cycle.\n\n### Strict-close parent contract\n\n| metrica | valore |\n|---|---:|\n| generated_at | `2026-06-06T02:17:03.322858+00:00` |\n| session | `btc_cycle_pre_refresh` |\n| cycle_ts | `20260606_0217` |\n| decision | `test` |\n| verdict | `STRICT_CLOSE_PREDECLARED_PAPER_CONTRACT` |\n| events | 9 |\n| null_rows | 180 |\n| event_median_directional_return_pct | 2.2856 |\n| null_median_directional_return_pct | -0.9611 |\n| edge_vs_matched_null_pct | 3.2467 |\n| matched_null_p_proxy | 0.3278 |\n| forward_denominator_admissible | true |\n| matched_null_admissible | true |\n| paper_decision_admissible | true |\n| policy_mutation_allowed | false |\n| trading_signal | false |\n\nQuesto e' il cambiamento discriminante rispetto al 20260604/20260605: il parent\ncontract non e' piu' `paper_decision_admissible=false`. E' un paper contract\ntestabile, ma non autorizza policy mutation o segnale.\n\n### Ledger latest esistente\n\n| metrica | valore |\n|---|---:|\n| generated_at | `2026-05-29T02:18:12.335928+00:00` |\n| lineage cycle_ts | `20260529_0217` |\n| decision | `watch` |\n| verdict | `STRICT_CLOSE_LEDGER_CONTRACT_NOT_ADMISSIBLE` |\n| rows | 9 |\n| hit_rate_after_cost | 0.5556 |\n| null_beat_rate | 0.4444 |\n| median_net_directional_return_pct | 2.1856 |\n| mean_net_directional_return_pct | -1.2231 |\n| median_edge_vs_matched_null_pct | -0.9438 |\n| trading_signal | false |\n| policy_mutation_allowed | false |\n\nIl latest del ledger resta stale e non current-cycle.\n\n### Ledger rerun no-write\n\n`btc_strict_close_paper_ledger.py --json` senza `--write`:\n\n| metrica | valore |\n|---|---:|\n| generated_at | `2026-06-06T02:18:34.551700+00:00` |\n| gate decision | `HOLD_OPEN_DAILY_CANDLE` |\n| latest_closed_common_date | `2026-06-05` |\n| decision | `test` |\n| verdict | `STRICT_CLOSE_PAPER_LEDGER_POSITIVE` |\n| rows | 9 |\n| paper_long | 6 |\n| paper_short | 3 |\n| positive_after_cost | 5 |\n| beats_matched_null | 5 |\n| hit_rate_after_cost | 0.5556 |\n| null_beat_rate | 0.5556 |\n| median_net_directional_return_pct | 2.1856 |\n| mean_net_directional_return_pct | -1.2231 |\n| median_edge_vs_matched_null_pct | 2.2093 |\n| best_event | `2026-04-07`, bullish, edge `9.46` |\n| worst_event | `2026-02-02`, bullish, edge `-14.5125` |\n| policy_mutation_allowed | false |\n| trading_signal | false |\n| real_order_execution | false |\n\nIl rerun no-write dice che il ledger e' maturato come test paper positivo, ma\nresta non scritto, non expected e non wired. Questo cambia la prossima mossa:\nnon e' piu' sufficiente dire \"stale extra da ignorare\"; serve una decisione\nesplicita di wiring/quarantena dopo report/post-cycle closure.\n\n### Daily gate e policy boundary\n\nDaily closed-evidence gate:\n\n| metrica | valore |\n|---|---:|\n| generated_at | `2026-06-06T02:17:02.791956+00:00` |\n| verdict | `HOLD_OPEN_DAILY_CANDLE` |\n| mutation_allowed | false |\n| latest_common_date | `2026-06-06` |\n| open_daily_date | `2026-06-06` |\n| latest_closed_common_date | `2026-06-05` |\n| next_allowed_daily_date | `2026-06-07` |\n\nPolicy mutation contract dal log:\n\n| metrica | valore |\n|---|---:|\n| policy_mutation_allowed | false |\n| allowed_effects | `refresh_autology`, `paper_decision` |\n| blocked_effects | `method_policy_mutation`, `real_execution` |\n| blocked_by | `closed_daily_evidence_gate` |\n\nLa simulazione paper e' ammessa come misura interna. La mutazione di metodo e\nl'esecuzione reale restano bloccate.\n\n### Log del ciclo\n\n`cycle_20260606_021701.log` conferma:\n\n- pre-cycle completato;\n- ciclo avviato a `02:17:04`;\n- autopsy `20260605_0217` completata;\n- trajectory apply applicata da `20260605_0217`;\n- direzione applicata: keep strict-close paper ledger quarantined unless it\n  becomes expected prod;\n- field live scritto;\n- `domain_request_runner` saltato per config;\n- provider chain entrata su `codex-cli`.\n\n## Baseline e null\n\nBaseline:\n\n- `20260605_0217`: health pass, producer 23/23, runtime audit pending con 6/24\n  current-cycle outputs, raw_log_exists=6, raw_trace_exists=0; strict-close\n  parent contract `paper_decision_admissible=false`; ledger latest stale extra.\n- `20260606_0217`: health pass, producer 23/23, runtime audit pending con 20/24\n  current-cycle outputs, raw_log_exists=20, raw_trace_exists=0; strict-close\n  parent contract `paper_decision_admissible=true`; ledger latest ancora stale\n  extra, ma no-write ledger diventa `STRICT_CLOSE_PAPER_LEDGER_POSITIVE`.\n\nNull operativi:\n\n- `artifact_admission_noop_null`: il 20260606 non aumenta artifact admission\n  rispetto al 20260605. Falsificato: current-cycle binding passa da 6 a 20.\n- `cycle_witness_complete_null`: il ciclo ha gia' trace/report/assertions/\n  falsifier/post-cycle closure. Non falsificato: smoke fallisce su witness\n  post-cycle e lineage audit resta pending.\n- `strict_close_parent_not_ready_null`: il parent contract strict-close resta\n  `paper_decision_admissible=false`. Falsificato: ora e' `true`.\n- `ledger_expected_prod_null`: il ledger strict-close e' gia' expected/current\n  producer. Non falsificato: latest resta stale `20260529_0217`, health lo\n  segnala come unexpected latest e producer trace resta 23/23 senza ledger.\n- `policy_mutation_or_signal_null`: il test paper autorizza public signal,\n  real orders o method-policy mutation. Falsificato: `trading_signal=false`,\n  `real_order_execution=false`, `policy_mutation_allowed=false`.\n\n## Risultato\n\nDecisione: `test` per il parent strict-close e per il ledger no-write; `watch`\nper la wiring del ledger; `pending` per cycle-witness completion.\n\nIl ciclo muove lo stato in tre punti:\n\n1. Artifact admission cresce: 20/24 artifact current-cycle bound con lineage,\n   stamped output e raw log.\n2. Il witness post-cycle non e' ancora chiuso: trace, assertions, falsifier,\n   post-cycle closure e date cycle count restano assenti/pending.\n3. Il parent strict-close e' diventato paper-admissible e il ledger no-write e'\n   positivo, ma il latest ledger ufficiale resta stale extra. Quindi Plan 54\n   deve diventare piu' preciso: non promuovere automaticamente il ledger, ma\n   preparare una decisione esplicita di wiring/quarantena dopo closure.\n\n## Bicono\n\nRadici:\n\n- baseline/null prima della promozione;\n- artifact authority separata da post-cycle witness;\n- paper simulation ammessa solo come misura interna;\n- open daily candle blocca method-policy mutation.\n\nSingolare:\n\n- il parent strict-close passa da watch/not-ready a paper contract testabile,\n  mentre il ledger latest resta stale e non wired.\n\nInvariante:\n\n- nessun signal/advice/order/mutation;\n- producer coverage completo non equivale a closure;\n- `status=pass` health non sostituisce trace/assertions/falsifier/closure.\n\nCampo:\n\n- prossima istanza deve chiudere il witness del ciclo e poi decidere se cablare\n  `btc_strict_close_paper_ledger.py` in refresh/health come producer atteso,\n  oppure lasciare il latest stale in quarantena esplicita. La decisione deve\n  usare il parent contract `paper_decision_admissible=true`, il ledger no-write\n  `STRICT_CLOSE_PAPER_LEDGER_POSITIVE`, e il blocco `policy_mutation_allowed=false`.\n\n## Non ammissibile\n\n- Usare il ledger no-write come consiglio operativo.\n- Presentare le 9 righe paper come edge pubblico.\n- Promuovere `btc_strict_close_paper_ledger_latest.json` a expected producer\n  senza wiring deliberata e post-cycle closure.\n- Interpretare `paper_decision_admissible=true` come method-policy mutation.\n- Usare l'open daily candle `2026-06-06` per reinterpretare policy.\n\n## Seed update\n\nDa aggiungere al seed solo per evidenza:\n\n`BITCOIN_REGIME_LAB_STRICT_CLOSE_PARENT_ADMISSIBLE_LEDGER_WIRING_PENDING`.\n\nClaim: cycle 20260606_0217 increased current-cycle artifact admission to 20/24\nand made the strict-close parent contract paper-admissible\n(`paper_decision_admissible=true`). A no-write strict-close paper ledger returns\n`STRICT_CLOSE_PAPER_LEDGER_POSITIVE` with 9 rows, null_beat_rate 0.5556 and\nmedian edge vs matched null 2.2093, but the official\n`btc_strict_close_paper_ledger_latest.json` remains stale from 20260529_0217 and\nunexpected in health. Do not promote automatically; after report/post-cycle\nclosure, decide explicit wiring or explicit quarantine handling.\n\n## Side effect\n\n- Scritto questo report:\n  `data/bitcoin-regime-lab/reports/agent_20260606_0217.md`.\n- Aggiornamento seed previsto con una tensione evidenziata da questo ciclo.\n- Nessun fetch di rete eseguito dall'agente.\n- Nessun artifact di mercato scritto dall'agente.\n- Nessun ordine reale, consiglio, target, entrata/uscita o mutazione policy.\n\n## Prossimo passo\n\nChiudere il witness post-cycle del 20260606: materializzare\n`cycle_trace_20260606_0217.json`, assertions/falsifier e closure audit. Poi\ndecidere una sola cosa: wiring deliberato del ledger strict-close come producer\natteso, oppure quarantena esplicita del latest stale con regola di cleanup.\n","title":"Bitcoin Regime Lab Cycle 20260606_0217","verdict":"","bicono":null,"size":15892,"mtime":"2026-06-06T02:20:58.153789+00:00"}